Food stocks at public storages declined over the past two months from the peak of nearly 20 lakh tonnes in mid-February this year amid increased distribution under various social protection programmes.

Public food distribution, including under open market sales and fair price programme, jumped 36 per cent year-on-year to 23.67 lakh tonnes in the July-March period of the current fiscal year, according to the food ministry data.

As a result, rice and wheat stock at the state depots dropped to 14.92 lakh tonnes as of April 12. Yet this was over three times higher than the 4.72 lakh tonnes recorded on the same day a year ago.

Mosammat Nazmanara Khanum, secretary to the food ministry, said public stocks would increase in the coming months as the ministry was set to start procuring paddy and rice in the Boro harvesting season of April and May.

The food ministry targets to buy 6.5 lakh tonnes of paddy and 11.50 lakh tonnes of parboiled rice during the Boro season.

The government would procure paddy at Tk 28 per kilogramme from April 27 while rice at Tk 40 per kilogramme from May 7.

"We will face no problem unless there is a major natural disaster," Nazmanara said.

Untimely surge of river water over the past one and a half weeks has inundated paddy fields in haor regions of seven districts under Sylhet and Mymensingh divisions, crushing hopes of thousands of farmers.

The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) estimates that farmers had planted Boro on 49.6 lakh hectares of land this year, encouraged by better prices of the grain compared to the previous year.

As Boro rice accounts for around 55 per cent of the total annual rice production, the food ministry usually buys the highest amount of the cereal during this season to ensure fair prices for growers and build up stocks to implement various social safety net schemes.

The food secretary said the ministry would continue to maintain a buffer stock of 10.5 lakh tonnes of food grains to intervene in the market and keep prices of the staple food stable.

"We still have a good stock and we have all sorts of preparation to keep prices stable," she said, adding, "We remain alert and we will not allow anyone to influence the market to increase prices."

AMM Shawkat Ali, a former food adviser to the caretaker government, said there was not much reason for the market to become unstable other than some crop losses in haor region.

He cited the Food and Agriculture Organization's warning regarding the risk of an increase in food prices for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and said the war has added a new dimension this year.

Ali suggested that the government keep track of the crop situation in India so that it could respond immediately if needed.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the current stock of foodgrain was higher than the previous year.

"But we have seen prices go up even when public stocks had been good. Stockists, millers and large farmers can take advantage of the declining stock of grains at public godowns," he said suggesting that the government monitor the market.